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1.) Swamp Fox - 11/15/2016
Moon phases, biology, tea leaves and chicken bones, and all that good stuff:



[url]http://wiredtohunt.com/2016/04/06/2016-rut-predictions-could-it-be-another-late-whitetail-deer-rut/[/url]



[url]http://community.deergear.com/tips/2016-rut-predictions-for-every-theory/[/url]



Submit your comments below, in case you're new here.


:wink
2.) Swamp Fox - 11/15/2016
Okay, I guess I'll have to go first, LOL.


If anyone wants to try to interpret this bit of authentic frontier gibberish from Mark Drury, whereby he's trying to explain that the moon phase both does and doesn't matter in terms of what we perceive as the intensity of "the rut," have at it.

I haven't listened for context and fuller details to the podcast linked, but maybe somebody else can take the time to do that and translate for us.

Without details, I have no idea how Drury thinks the moon affects what we see during the daytime, unless he subscribes to the "light nights" theory, where deer move more at night "'cause they can see better." Under this theory, deer shut down during the day 'cause they're tired from all the night-time running around or something, or they're skeered of hunters, in which case you wonder why Drury doesn't just say that instead of the gobbledeygook W-T-H quotes:


[I]And here’s one more take on the rut timing that combines parts of the above theories along with moon factors as well, and it comes from Mark Drury. He explained, on the Wired To Hunt Podcast, that he believes that “the rut happens at the exact same time each and every fall.” But, he went on to say, “what part of it is exposed is based on when the full moon hits within that month, based on daylight activity … The moon, in my opinion, exposes the daylight portion (of the rut) different each year depending on how the full moon falls. That’s why you see the variance in ruts that are intense versus not. If it exposes during the seeking phase, you’ll go oh man, this was an awesome rut. However if the moon exposes the lockdown, you’ll think it’s a terrible rut.” That said, according to Drury, if you want to predict the best daylight movement during the rut, look for those dates during the traditional pre-rut or rut (late October into the first two weeks of November) that coincide with the days surrounding the full moon.[/I]


[url]http://wiredtohunt.com/2016/04/06/20...tail-deer-rut/[/url]

(Link to podcast at that address ^^^^)
3.) Swamp Fox - 11/15/2016
[I]*crickets*[/I]



[SIGH]


[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45439]Without details, I have no idea how Drury thinks the moon affects what we see during the daytime, unless he subscribes to the "light nights" theory, where deer move more at night "'cause they can see better." Under this theory, deer shut down during the day 'cause they're tired from all the night-time running around or something, or they're skeered of hunters, in which case you wonder why Drury doesn't just say that instead of the gobbledeygook W-T-H quotes:


[/QUOTE]

So, just when that started to make a little sense, WTH/Drury throws this out there, which is diametrically opposed:


[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45439][I]That said, according to Drury, if you want to predict the best daylight movement during the rut, look for those dates during the traditional pre-rut or rut (late October into the first two weeks of November) that coincide with the days surrounding the full moon[/I].----per W-T-H[/QUOTE]
4.) DParker - 11/15/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45439]Under this theory, deer shut down during the day 'cause they're tired from all the night-time running around or something...[/QUOTE]

I thought it was due to 'em bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk. Or maybe I'm thinking of something else.
5.) bluecat - 11/15/2016
+ 2 :-)
6.) Bob Peck - 11/15/2016
The problem with *any* rut prediction is managing the impossible combination of multiple variables like geography, weather, herd size/health, buck-doe ratio, moon phase (or not), margins of error, spring birth timing etc., etc., etc.

I *do* know rut predictions are big business for media types jockeying for authoritative position. Hotels, motels, restaurants, retailers, etc all count on the rut for a spike (pun intended) in sales.
7.) luv2bowhunt - 11/16/2016
Impossible to give rut forecasts from Iowa for someone in VA or PA. Impossible to even decipher what you're seeing from the treestand most of the time. You might see bucks walking by all morning long so you know the seeking phase is in full swing, while your buddy sitting 300 yds away sees nothing, so he's convinced they must be in lock down or not into it yet.

I like to stick with science and biology on this subject as much as possible. Our deer study being conducted by the PA Game Comm. and Penn State Univ. has been going on for many years, and they're convinced that the rut is taking place the same time here every year.

And I would have to say that from my amateur position in the deer woods, that makes a lot of sense. I had lots of pics of bucks walking by my cameras in the daytime hours starting the first week of Nov. and during my hunt last week I saw and heard a good bit of chasing going on.

That seems to be the way it shakes out every year here.

Don't get me started on the Drury's, even though I'm sure Bob is a personal friend of them. It's all about selling us something as our resident author so appropriately pointed out.
8.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
So you wanna take a stab at translating Drury?

He seems to be taking at least two positions--I'd say three, LOL--at once.
9.) bluecat - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45436]Moon phases, biology, tea leaves and chicken bones, and all that good stuff:

[/QUOTE]

:wave:
10.) luv2bowhunt - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45458]So you wanna take a stab at translating Drury?[/QUOTE]

11.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
Bluecat, this could affect the way you set up your badger decoy diorama...to say nothing of putting you off swimming near coral reefs...




6 Wild Ways the Moon Affects Animals===

[url]http://www.livescience.com/37928-ways-the-moon-affects-animals.html[/url]
12.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
LOL...:-)
13.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
Bluecat, this could affect the way you set up your badger decoy diorama...to say nothing of putting you off swimming near coral reefs:




6 Wild Ways the Moon Affects Animals===

[url]http://www.livescience.com/37928-ways-the-moon-affects-animals.html[/url]
14.) bluecat - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45463]Bluecat, this could affect the way you set up your badger decoy diorama...to say nothing of putting you off swimming near coral reefs...




6 Wild Ways the Moon Affects Animals===

[url]http://www.livescience.com/37928-ways-the-moon-affects-animals.html[/url][/QUOTE]

[I]Badgers become pee-shy

European badgers tend to raise their leg up when they pee more often during the new moon (when the moon is between the Earth and sun so the side facing us receives no direct sunlight) than the full moon, researchers have found. The badgers use this move to mark territory, especially when they are getting ready to mate. And the new moon seems to be prime time for badger mating, with scientists suggesting the increased darkness provides the badger couple protection from lurking predators. Pairs of badgers can take up to 90 minutes to mate, and become easier targets during that time. So while the pee pattern may seem to be a loony habit, it appears to have a practical root in self defense.[/I]


Good find. But you have to understand that these are European badgers. That's not really a proper badger.
15.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016




:wink
16.) DParker - 11/16/2016
I can't even predict my own rut activity, let alone that of a bunch of deer I've never met.
17.) bluecat - 11/16/2016
:laugh:
18.) bluecat - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45465]



:wink[/QUOTE]

"That badger was dynamite!"
19.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
....
20.) bluecat - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=DParker;45466]I can't even predict my own rut activity, let alone a bunch of deer I've never met.[/QUOTE]


For me it coincides with the blue moon phase.
21.) Swamp Fox - 11/16/2016
LOL...

You should see a doctor if symptoms persist...


But: the strawberry moon guys are jealous of you.
22.) Bob Peck - 11/16/2016
[QUOTE=luv2bowhunt;45454]Impossible to give rut forecasts from Iowa for someone in VA or PA. Impossible to even decipher what you're seeing from the treestand most of the time. [/QUOTE] I say the same thing about the pros and cons of one scent product over the other.

[QUOTE=luv2bowhunt;45454] ...they're convinced that the rut is taking place the same time here every year.[QUOTE=luv2bowhunt;45454]
If this is true then I'm screwed. I've spent many, many more hours in the woods this year than any other in general the same locations I've hunted for the last 10. I've spent many a 6-pack analyzing 16 cameras worth of footage (some video) and what I'm seeing (or not seeing as the case may be) is not what I've experienced the last 10 years. I too believed and have experienced and believed in the "same time every year" theory. This year seems different.

[QUOTE=luv2bowhunt;45454]Don't get me started on the Drury's, even though I'm sure Bob is a personal friend of them. It's all about selling us something as our resident author so appropriately pointed out.[/QUOTE]

I unfairly lump hunting celebrities I've met/worked with/hunted with into 3 categories:

1.
Product Whores
They will say anything, do anything and endorse/support anything in order to extract sponsorship dollars out of an OEM. They'll jump ship, renege on heartfelt promises and leave the knife in the back. Product whores are 50/50 on hunting prowess. Some have it. Some don't.

2.
Genuine Article
These men and women get where they've gotten because they've put in the time without cameras rolling and know a thing or two more than the rest of us. They are interested more in the adventure than the business and usually end up exploited or over exposed into non-existence. Genuine articles are rare and don't last very long in the cut throat hunting industry.

3. Posers
They don't know squat about hunting while pretending to know everything. They present well on camera and know how to kiss butt better and longer than the average goober trying to make a living in the industry. Posers are easy to spot and like boy bands are often pre-fabricated by someone in the industry who has enough money to prop them up or the poser comes to the table with enough money to prop themselves up.

I'll let y'all guess which ones the Drury's are.
23.) luv2bowhunt - 11/17/2016
Well, let's use our deductive reasoning powers.

If they were a #2 they would have "end up exploited or over exposed into non-existence", which hasn't happened yet. "Genuine articles are rare and don't last very long in the cut throat hunting industry." They've been around for a long time so we can cross that one off.

If they were a #3 they wouldn't "know squat about hunting while pretending to know everything." I'm not sure that would describe them, they seem to have some knowledge of how to kill deer with a bow on a regular basis. Most of which is due to the huge tracts of private land in Illinois and Iowa. "Posers are easy to spot and like boy bands are often pre-fabricated by someone in the industry". That doesn't seem to match up with them either, that sounds like a Waddell or anyone on Buck Commander.

I'm going to go with #1. That description makes total sense to me, whether it's unfair or not.

Actually, thinking about this and them, makes me want to go #2.
24.) bluecat - 11/17/2016
It's a pretty simple process to find out.

Watch show. Before, during or after the kill, they start blabbing about some product they are using or the product logos are up front and in your face. Product whore.

I once watched Dave Blanton on a winter hunt talk about these booties that he was wearing in the stand. He spent 5 minutes talking them up and saying he would never hunt without them and how great they were. Never have seen him wearing them since.

I saw Babe Winkelman shoot a very small moose. I'm convinced he shot it just so he could start talking about his Gerber game processing kit. He spent considerable time talking about each item in the case which just conveniently appeared out of his pack. The moose was secondary to the whole hunt.

I can't count the number of "celebrities" that will endorse a bow manufacturer and then the next year, they are endorsing another bow, decoy, camo pattern, scent killer, etc.

I don't begrudge them for trying to make a buck, but I'm more moved to buy something when it isn't in my face. I don't need to be told how great something is. I can see if it is effective or not.
25.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
I think the vast majority of shows pay to be on the air, and then the majority of those are not self-supported, which makes them like magazines which have to find financial support through advertising or sponsorship.

I doubt you see much change in the infomercial/"it's all ads" nature of outdoor shows until TV networks/channels are willing to pay to get them, rather than command payment from them to get access to airtime.

That would take either very special, very well-done shows, or a lot more hunters and fishermen in the population. LOL
26.) DParker - 11/17/2016
Outdoor shows that I've watched that do not (or [i]did[/i] not) fall into the infomercial category:

[I]In Fisherman[/i]
[I]The Best & Worst of Tred Barta[/i]

{Bubba}
That...that's about it.
{/Bubba}
27.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
LOL...

I was just thinking I like to see which shows (or magazines) people like much more than read about the ones they don't. A year or so ago I performed a little survey of the webnet and jotted down the most frequent TV mentions in both categories.

It's in a pile of papers, but if I come across it naturally and people still want to talk about this---LOL---I'll cough up the deets.
28.) bluecat - 11/17/2016
MeatEater with Steven Rinella is one we've all talked about before. I just don't get those outdoor channels. I do have about 140 channels of erectile disfunction shows, crepey skin, hot tubs, hair replacment, weight loss, you know, really important stuff.
29.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
I was thinking of [I]MeatEater [/I] as I wrote my last post. I don't know what the situation is, but I'll bet some money that's one of the shows the network buys, because Rinella had an existing platform from his previous work, which was travel-oriented, I think. The show was [I]The Wild Within[/I], and I've never heard anything but great reviews of it. I always want to find re-runs of it when I think about it, but have no idea if it ever airs anymore.

I think he'd also grabbed a toehold prior to [I]MeatEater[/I] with some good writing, although I think most of his resume there is post-[I]MeatEater.[/I]

Could be wrong about cable paying him; maybe he pays cable to promote his name and other ventures. Would be kinda interesting to know.
30.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
There's some [I]Wild Within [/I] stuff on youtube, but I don't know about whole shows.

I forgot it was a National Geographic project, which must be nice, LOL. It was on the Travel Channel, so if anyone gets that (I'm not sure that I do) maybe you can keep your eyes peeled. Maye NatGeo as well.


This is a pretty good tease:



ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos
31.) bluecat - 11/17/2016
Nice clip, thanks.
32.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
Yeah, I thought so.

I'll amend what I said above slightly: I think he got picked up for [I]Wild Within [/I]by a professional group who noticed him after he wrote two well-received outdoors-oriented books (plus magazine writing) which preceded [I]MeatEater[/I]. That's the impression given at his website. Point being that he probably wasn't knocking on doors with a grocery bag full of audition tapes or offering to pay for airtime when he hit the big time. But who knows. Sometimes people notice you because you ARE banging on the door.

In any event, I know he has sponsors, but I never noticed any product plugs in his show, just regular commercials. I haven't seen the show in a while, though. I noticed the custom rifle is on the shelf now, apparently, in favor of a Savage. I doubt he shot it out, LOL. I'm guessing whatever happened worked out better for Savage and Rinella than it did for Carolina Custom Rifles.

But that's life.
33.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
Anyway, one of the good guys, I think, and inspirational.
34.) Swamp Fox - 11/17/2016
Edit function is on the fritz again....At least on this end.
35.) bluecat - 11/18/2016
Sometimes when I press 'Edit Post', no text appears. I'm still trying to figure out if there is a pattern or not.
36.) bluecat - 11/18/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45471]LOL...

You should see a doctor if symptoms persist...


But: the strawberry moon guys are jealous of you.[/QUOTE]

37.) Swamp Fox - 11/18/2016
LOL---

Considering all the trouble with China, the Japanese are very interested in American elections.



Was that wrong? ---LOL-- Name go in book?


"Wok this way..."
38.) Swamp Fox - 11/18/2016
[QUOTE=bluecat;45498]Sometimes when I press 'Edit Post', no text appears. I'm still trying to figure out if there is a pattern or not.[/QUOTE]


That's what usually happens to me when I have a problem. Last night, though, I was trying to correct a typo in Post 29 and it showed the text but no "save" button. So you could change text but there was no way to post the change. The "enter" button simply acted as a paragraph spacer. I had to exit the post/page without the change being applied.
39.) bluecat - 11/18/2016
[QUOTE=Swamp Fox;45502]
Name go in book?

[/QUOTE]

40.) Swamp Fox - 11/18/2016
I came across this the other day, and thought it was worth remembering :wink:


[I]All are lunatics, but he who can analyze his delusion is called a philosopher. [/I]

~Ambrose Bierce, [I]Epigrams[/I]
41.) bluecat - 11/18/2016
"I just dropped in, to see what condition my condition was in." Kenny Rogers